When I last wrote this market update in January, market signals were sideways, there were some positives, and some negatives, depending upon who was buying and who was selling. Since then, there has been an administration change and tariff talks/discussions every week, but prices throughout the supply chain are surging.
RETAIL
In the most recent U.S. Department of Agriculture retail report, the feature rate was around 10 percent. The feature rate is the amount of sampled stores advertising any reported item during the current week, expressed as a percentage of the total sample. Thus, approximately 10 percent of stores are featuring lamb products. The national activity rate in the first week of March was relatively unchanged compared to the year, at 2,753. The activity rate is a measure of the absolute frequency of feature activity equal to the total number of stores for each advertised item (i.e. retailer with 200 outlets featuring three items has an activity index of 600).
The Northeast region (Conn., Del., Mass., Md., Maine, N.H., N.J., N.Y., Penn., R.I. and Vt.) and the Southeast region (Ala., Fla., Ga., Miss., N.C., S.C., Tenn., Va. and W.V.) both have higher featuring rates of 18 percent and 22.6 percent, respectively. In the Northeast region, the highest valued products in early March were fresh Halal rib chops averaging $27.99 per pound. Whereas in the Southeast region, the highest valued products were fresh loin chops averaging $8.99 per pound. Additionally, the Southeast region had the highest activity index of 1,485. With Easter coming, I would expect the feature rate and activity rate to start increasing.
WHOLESALE
In the first week of March, the lamb cutout ended at $459.91 per cwt., which is $11.14 per cwt. lower compared to a year ago. Compared to the previous five-year average (2019 to 2023), prices in early March were $32.35 per cwt. higher. Through the first nine weeks of 2025, the cutout averaged $459.03 per cwt., which is $11.51 per cwt. lower than last year, and $28.30 per cwt. higher than the previous five-year average.
While the lamb cutout is lower than last year prices remain steady, which indicates steady demand from downstream participants. When looking at primal cut values, boxed lamb rack (8-rib light) prices have been surging. Last year, racks topped out at $1,159 per cwt. in September and November. Through the first nine weeks of 2025, prices trended upward from $1,118.21 per cwt. at the start of January, to $1,186.12 per cwt. in the first week of March. At $1,186.12 per cwt., rack prices are $54.12 per cwt. higher than last year and $73.69 per cwt. higher than the previous five-year average.
SLAUGHTER
When looking at supplies, weekly lamb and yearling slaughter has been averaging 32,540 head per week this year. That puts this year at an average of 810 head per week higher than last year, and relatively the same as the previous five-year average (32,270 head per week). A key difference this year compared to last year is that the weekly slaughter volume was increasing at this time last year at approximately 34,000 head in anticipation of Easter (March 31, 2024). As mentioned in previous months, slaughter dressed weights last year (63.3 pounds) and this year (63.8 pounds) are lower compared to the previous five-year average (67.3 pounds). By taking 2025 weekly slaughter weights and average slaughter numbers, total lamb and yearling production is up approximately 3.2 percent through early March compared to last year.
PRICES
Feeder lamb prices in the three-market average (Colorado, South Dakota and Texas) have also been surging in 2025. At the start of 2025, prices were $255.92 per cwt. Since then, each week has brought increased prices with the first week of March ending at $345 per cwt. These prices are the highest since the first quarter of 2022.
For 60- to 90-pound slaughter lambs, the three-market prices have been steadily increasing since early February and are the highest of the year in the first week of March at $265.83 per cwt. These current prices are higher than the peak of last year – $263.96 per cwt. in April. Given the further downstream price movements, I would expect these prices to continue to increase.
In heavier weights, the 100- to 150-pound slaughter lamb prices hit a floor of $147 per cwt. in February, and have increased up to $187.50 per cwt. in the first week of March. The prices for these heavyweights are $27.50 per cwt. higher than last year and $4.91 per cwt. lower than the previous five-year average. Given that these animals are above the average dressed weights and prices are increasing, these signals suggest strong demand for lamb products.
Negotiated slaughter lamb prices are also increasing and were at $175.58 per cwt. in early March, which is the highest of the year. These prices are underwhelming when compared to last year – $191.24 per cwt. – but they are still higher than the previous five-year average – $164.20 per cwt.
I expect these prices to continue to increase due to seasonality trends, but the question becomes how high, which I think is too early to call. Fundamentals suggest that they still have $20 to $25 per cwt. of vertical movement.
TRADE
One driver of demand has been the export market. In the latest trade data in January, the United States exported 60,213 metric tons of product (meat, wool and skins). That amount is 6,100 metric tons more than in January 2024. While the amount is more than a year ago, the value of the product in the meat products is up. In January, the value of exports was $1.457 million, which is the highest single month value since June 2022 ($1.54 million).
In January, 27.3 million pounds (12,383 metric tons) of lamb product was imported, which is 4.1 million pounds more than January 2024. According to weekly imported lamb cut data reported by the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service, imports have oscillated around a 50 percent fresh and 50 percent frozen lamb product mix so far this year.
The most imported product in the first week of March was fresh boneless Australian leg (14.7 percent of imported fresh volume). The highest valued lamb product in the first week of March was fresh Australian rack (cap off) at $1,370.20 per cwt. Higher domestic and imported prices reinforces current demand for this product.
WOOL
As I write this in the first week of March, the wool market has also had some upward movement in prices. To start March, the AWEX Eastern Market Indicator has trended up to 1,225 AU cents per kg – up from 1,172 AU cents per kg in March 2024 – and the highest since May 2023. When converted to U.S. dollars per pound, prices are at $3.47 per lb. clean basis. This is the highest per pound price since October 2024 ($3.48 per lb.). While American wool prices have been steady to lower depending on quality – when compared to last year – there were incremental increases in the last few weeks of February. In the fine wools (17 to 19 micron), prices remained relatively stable with 18 micron prices ($4.72 per lb.) being the highest since mid-October.
In medium wools (19.5 to 24 micron), 20 micron ($4.35 per lb.), 22 micron ($4.21 per lb.) and 23 micron ($4.10 per lb.) wool prices have trended up on the year and gained more than 20 U.S. cents per pound since the first week of January.
In coarser wools (25 to 32 micron), prices have remained steady for the last couple of months, with 25 micron starting March at $2.16 per lb. Recent reports on improved buyer demand is a factor behind the recent uptick in wool prices.
OUTLOOK
Throughout this year, prices across the supply chain have been surging, including wool prices. From a producer standpoint, this is a welcome site because of the past few years lacking consistent profitability. From a lamb product standpoint, supplies continue to remain steady, but prices are increasing, which suggests strong demand from a consumer standpoint.
With tariff talks turning on and off throughout this year, the lamb industry is probably most impacted at the farm level via input cost fluctuations, rather than meat trading impacts. I would expect prices to continue to increase unless there is a macro level impact from a policy standpoint moving forward.
Thus, depending on which side of a deal one is on, the price increases can be great or not so great.